The Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI) is an index of the statistical risk of violent conflict in the next 1-4 years and is exclusively based on quantitative indicators from open sources. With the assumption that structural conditions in a country are linked to the occurrence of violent conflict, the GCRI collects 24 variables in 5 dimensions (social, economic, security, political, geographical/environmental) and uses statistical regression models to calculate probability and intensity of violent conflict.
Note that - although the methodology was developed building on international expertise - no expert judgement or analysis is used in the 6-monthly updates of the GCRI. It is a quantitative method that is purely based on data processing data.
The GCRI therefore represents quantitative open-source evidence that can be used as one input in expert analysis on early warning for violent conflict. It should be complemented with an in-depth qualitative analysis per country or region. The limitations of the GCRI must be considered. In particular, one must be aware that:
The GCRI is based on open-source data and its results are published openly, along with the methodology, to encourage transparency in building an evidence-based baseline in conflict risk. Leading academic and scientific organisations are part of the methodology reference working group.
Version, December 2017.